Indicators of Risk

Signals that should move to the top of your action plan

A triage framework — critical, elevated, emerging — built from the 2025 PAYS statewide results across 267,379 students in 1,064 schools.

Lens267,379 students · official baseline

Considered suicide

14.2%

Past 12 months, all grades

[PAYS 2025, Table 7.4]

Made a plan

11.6%

Past 12 months, all grades

[PAYS 2025, Table 7.4]

Persistent sadness

32.8%

2+ weeks, past 12 months

[PAYS 2025, Table 7.1]

Bullied at school

21.4%

Past 12 months

[PAYS 2025, Table 8.2]

Tiered indicators

Critical risk

Seriously considered suicide in past 12 months — 14.2% statewide
Made a suicide plan in past 12 months — 11.6% statewide
Past-30-day heavy/binge drinking (5+ drinks in a row) — 4.1%
Persistent sadness (2+ weeks) combined with low school belonging

Elevated risk

4+ hours daily recreational screen time — 36.3% of students
Past-30-day vaping starting by grade 8 — 3.1% of 8th graders
Past-year sports betting (any format) among 12th graders — 11.7%
Bullied at school in past 12 months — 21.4%

Emerging risk

Declining perceived risk of regular cannabis use among 10th–12th graders
Online loot-box / in-game purchase activity among middle schoolers
Rise in cyberbullying reports (12.8% past 12 months)
Lower perceived adult disapproval of vaping vs. cigarettes

Suicide-risk indicators by grade

Past-12-month suicide ideation, planning, and attempt

Percent of students reporting each indicator, by grade

n = 267,3792025% past 12 months

Source: 2025 Pennsylvania Youth Survey, statewide profile

How to use these tiers

In your county profile

Flag every PAYS 2025 indicator that meets a critical or elevated threshold for your community — and compare to the statewide rate.

In school improvement plans

Map each tier to a Tier 1, Tier 2, or Tier 3 response and assign a named owner with a 90-day check-in.

In funding requests

Connect critical-tier indicators directly to budget line items and outcome measures in the narrative.

A reminder on prevalence vs. concentration

A rare behavior can still be a critical indicator if it concentrates in a small group of students. Always read prevalence alongside lethality, trend, and the protective factors available in your community.

Subgroup spotlight

Risk indicators concentrate in identifiable subgroups — that's where Tier 2/3 capacity should grow first.

Students with high depressive symptoms

5.0×

Past-30-day cannabis use vs. peers without

LGBQ+ students, suicide attempt

11.2%

Past 12 months vs. 3.6% of straight peers

Students reporting weapon at school

4.2%

Concentrated in a small number of schools

Subgroup cells with n < 30 are suppressed. See methodology.